Offshore and other energy projects

An international offshore project tender (D1)

Over two half-day sessions, the contingency element of the tender price was determined in an international tender situation. The project involved parallel “fast-forward” interventions in several places in the world.

An offshore project: meeting a deadline (D2)

As early as at the outset of a project, the date of production start-up is of urgent interest in sales negotiations and in evaluating profitability. The aim here was to calculate the likelihood of meeting the future deadline for production start-up. A broad-based analysis group performed a thorough analysis of the anticipated project duration, the embedded uncertainty and its main causes, and the related expediting potential.

A major offshore project: a commercial risk analysis (D3)

Considerations of profitability required thorough and realistic estimates of the project duration and investment costs, including the contingency element. Over three full-day sessions, an analysis group achieved this objective at the pre-tender stage.

Control over commercial uncertainties (D4)

An offshore company with an advanced technical control system wanted to use the Successive Principle to extend the company’s control so as to cover all uncertainties which might have a commercial impact, and thus become more competitive and robust. Schedules of two projects were analysed. The first project was completed in accordance with the analysis results; the second analysis is summarised in example e5 below.

The commercial threat of an offshore project going beyond existing technology (D5)

The majority partners favoured a project alternative with narrow and exceptionally crucial deadlines, but using previously untried technology. The minority partner found a less risky project alternative which was commercially more appropriate. This partner applied the Successive Principle to perform an uncertainty analysis which identified significant over-optimism in the majority partners’ project alternative. The effect would have been a major overrun and delay. The partnership group as a whole accepted these results as being more realistic. Today, the parties have agreed on the less risky project alternative.

Verification of the schedule for a planned sub-sea tunnel using new technology (D6)

A sub-sea gas transmission pipeline was to be extended into an on-shore tunnel running through rocky ocean coastline. This called for a new methodology. As time was critical, a risk analysis of the schedule was required. The expected time requirement was evaluated and the project was later completed according to schedule.

A risk analysis of an integrated off-shore project (D7)

Analysis of a detailed budget identified 22% of the contingency allocation as superfluous. Three years later, this proved to be correct to within a few percentage points.