The practical approach

The subject to be analysed may be an important estimate, budget, schedule, financial analysis, a resource plan or other matters with a total result to be expressed in quantitative form.

1. A relevant group of key persons is appointed for the specific analysis purpose
2. The scope and overall external and internal factors of uncertainty are identified and described by the analysis group.
3. A top-down work breakdown is started, and an intuitive quantification of a set of main items, main activities or similar factors is conducted. The newly developed evaluation technique safeguards against pitfalls. Using Bayesian statistics the total is calculated, together with a ranked top-ten list of the primary local contributions to the total uncertainty.
4. A further systematic breakdown continues in successive steps, guided by the updated top-ten list, until a practical minimum or an acceptable level of uncertainty is reached.
5. The group finally establishes a set of suggested action plans for further improvements of the plan. This is supported by the analysis results, which include a final ranked top-ten list of primary remaining sources of uncertainty.